As European politicans cut short their grande vancances to attend to the latest crisis, it's worth having another look how the Halloween effect is once again playing out.
The theory is that markets perform best between November and May and this has certainly been the case going back to 1990 on the S&P 500.
The chart below shows three investment strategies:
- Buy and hold the S&P 500.
- Buy in the close in November, sell the close in May. Cash inbetweem return of 3% PA average.
- Buy the close in June sell in October. Cash inbetween return of 3% PA.
Nov-May does give you more months in the market, but they do seem to be the right months. Food for thought...